USD/JPY AI outlook: leaning up

Holding has done better here: +42.1% vs the AI's +8.5% over 1299 days. The AI's worst drop was -17.8% vs -14.8%.

Why

• US gasoline price is high (+2.25 sd). In 518 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.096, t 2.19), so this supports the market.
• Big speculators (CFTC) is low (-1.23 sd). In 518 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.125, t -2.85), so this supports the market.
• Dark pool buying (DIX) is high (+1.17 sd). In 2207 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.092, t 4.35), so this supports the market.
• Fed balance sheet is high (+1.06 sd). In 519 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.1, t 2.28), so this supports the market.
• US dollar index is high (+1.21 sd). In 2179 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.087, t -4.08), so this weighs on the market.

Crowd psychology: euphoria

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.1% over 5 days, up 47% of the time (32 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: -0.4% over 5 days, up 43% of the time (28 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: +0.3% over 5 days, up 51% of the time (43 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.3% over 5 days, up 60% of the time (20 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.1% over 5 days, up 55% of the time (321 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · JPY BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks · Tue, 06 Oct 2026 06:35 UTC
• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure