10-year Treasury AI outlook: neutral

Following the AI beat buy and hold here: -14.6% vs -20.9% over 1256 days, worst drop -15.5% vs -21.1%.

Why

• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2486 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.137, t -6.89), so this weighs on the market.
• Fed balance sheet is high (+1.06 sd). In 512 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.134, t -3.05), so this weighs on the market.
• US dollar index is high (+1.21 sd). In 2473 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.08, t 4), so this supports the market.
• Inflation expectations is high (+0.69 sd). In 2485 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.14, t -7.06), so this weighs on the market.
• Fed reverse repo is low (-0.6 sd). In 2481 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.115, t -5.79), so this supports the market.

Crowd psychology: optimism

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: -0.3% over 5 days, up 26% of the time (23 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.1% over 5 days, up 57% of the time (28 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.1% over 5 days, up 48% of the time (23 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.1% over 5 days, up 47% of the time (32 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: -0.0% over 5 days, up 47% of the time (326 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure