Solana AI outlook: leaning down

Following the AI beat buy and hold here: +80.0% vs -25.1% over 449 days, worst drop -36.1% vs -74.9%.

Why

• Implied correlation (CBOE COR1M) is low (-1.59 sd). In 610 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.136, t 3.4), so this weighs on the market.
• DeFi value locked is high (+0.79 sd). In 889 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.218, t -6.66), so this weighs on the market.
• Stablecoin supply is high (+1.84 sd). In 889 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.091, t -2.71), so this weighs on the market.
• Wikipedia attention is low (-0.79 sd). In 889 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.142, t -4.27), so this supports the market.
• US dollar (5-day change) is high (+1.02 sd). In 612 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.104, t 2.57), so this supports the market.

Crowd psychology: optimism

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: -1.4% over 5 days, up 57% of the time (7 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +2.4% over 5 days, up 50% of the time (12 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: +2.4% over 5 days, up 69% of the time (13 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: -0.9% over 5 days, up 46% of the time (13 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +0.7% over 5 days, up 54% of the time (83 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +1.9% over 5 days, up 54% of the time (26 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure