Silver AI outlook: neutral

Holding has done better here: +170.5% vs the AI's +89.6% over 1255 days. The AI's worst drop was -49.0% vs -51.4%.

Why

• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2486 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.131, t -6.59), so this weighs on the market.
• US dollar index is high (+1.21 sd). In 2473 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.151, t 7.59), so this supports the market.
• Treasury cash account is high (+1.77 sd). In 513 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.1, t 2.27), so this supports the market.
• Copper to gold ratio is low (-0.92 sd). In 2502 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.146, t -7.35), so this supports the market.
• Financial stress index is low (-0.81 sd). In 503 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.114, t 2.58), so this weighs on the market.

Crowd psychology: fear

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: -0.2% over 5 days, up 50% of the time (24 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.0% over 5 days, up 59% of the time (27 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.4% over 5 days, up 47% of the time (43 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: -0.4% over 5 days, up 50% of the time (28 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +0.6% over 5 days, up 53% of the time (38 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.4% over 5 days, up 53% of the time (134 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure