Russell 2000 AI outlook: leaning down

Holding has done better here: +42.9% vs the AI's +18.5% over 1162 days. The AI's worst drop was -19.5% vs -27.6%.

Why

• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2300 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.124, t -6), so this weighs on the market.
• Corporate bond spread (Baa) is low (-1.15 sd). In 2296 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.164, t 7.97), so this weighs on the market.
• Volatility (20 days) is low (-0.88 sd). In 2266 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.191, t 9.28), so this weighs on the market.
• Implied correlation (CBOE COR1M) is low (-1.59 sd). In 2313 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.1, t 4.81), so this weighs on the market.
• Copper to gold ratio is low (-0.92 sd). In 2315 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.122, t -5.9), so this supports the market.

Crowd psychology: optimism

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.3% over 5 days, up 52% of the time (21 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: -0.4% over 5 days, up 44% of the time (16 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.1% over 5 days, up 62% of the time (42 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.8% over 5 days, up 59% of the time (27 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +1.2% over 5 days, up 50% of the time (16 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.1% over 5 days, up 56% of the time (192 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

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Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure