Crude oil AI outlook: neutral

Holding has done better here: +13.3% vs the AI's -16.3% over 1256 days. The AI's worst drop was -50.8% vs -55.3%.

Why

• Treasury cash account is high (+1.77 sd). In 513 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.122, t 2.78), so this supports the market.
• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2487 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.099, t -4.94), so this weighs on the market.
• Financial conditions is low (-0.55 sd). In 503 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.152, t -3.43), so this supports the market.
• Oil volatility index (OVX) is high (+0.67 sd). In 2501 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.114, t 5.73), so this supports the market.
• Euro to dollar (Fed) is near normal (-0.37 sd). In 2476 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.089, t 4.46), so this weighs on the market.

Crowd psychology: calm

• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.1% over 5 days, up 49% of the time (41 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.7% over 5 days, up 55% of the time (22 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +2.0% over 5 days, up 63% of the time (72 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.6% over 5 days, up 58% of the time (146 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure