Natural gas AI outlook: leaning up

Following the AI beat buy and hold here: -43.3% vs -46.0% over 1256 days, worst drop -72.5% vs -83.7%.

Why

• Dealer gamma exposure (GEX) is high (+1.78 sd). In 2501 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.082, t 4.12), so this supports the market.
• S&P 500 level is high (+2.42 sd). In 2500 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.05, t 2.51), so this supports the market.
• US dollar (5-day change) is high (+1.02 sd). In 2497 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.053, t 2.65), so this supports the market.
• Distance from 50-day average is near normal (+0.47 sd). In 2454 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.082, t -4.07), so this weighs on the market.
• Inflation expectations is high (+0.69 sd). In 2486 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.055, t 2.72), so this supports the market.

Crowd psychology: optimism

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: -1.9% over 5 days, up 38% of the time (26 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +2.3% over 5 days, up 57% of the time (21 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -4.1% over 5 days, up 41% of the time (34 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +2.4% over 5 days, up 56% of the time (27 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +0.8% over 5 days, up 55% of the time (215 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: -0.4% over 5 days, up 49% of the time (104 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure