Nasdaq 100 AI outlook: leaning down

Following the AI beat buy and hold here: +133.9% vs +112.2% over 1256 days, worst drop -20.9% vs -35.3%.

Why

• Corporate bond spread (Baa) is low (-1.15 sd). In 2484 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.16, t 8.09), so this weighs on the market.
• Implied correlation (CBOE COR1M) is low (-1.59 sd). In 2501 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.115, t 5.76), so this weighs on the market.
• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2487 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.108, t -5.41), so this weighs on the market.
• Dealer gamma exposure (GEX) is high (+1.78 sd). In 2501 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.081, t -4.07), so this weighs on the market.
• Oil volatility index (OVX) is high (+0.67 sd). In 2501 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.176, t 8.93), so this supports the market.

Crowd psychology: euphoria

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.5% over 5 days, up 56% of the time (32 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: -0.8% over 5 days, up 52% of the time (21 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: +0.6% over 5 days, up 67% of the time (64 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +1.2% over 5 days, up 65% of the time (20 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +3.9% over 5 days, up 69% of the time (16 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.4% over 5 days, up 64% of the time (283 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure