Gold AI outlook: neutral

Holding has done better here: +135.9% vs the AI's +115.8% over 1256 days. The AI's worst drop was -22.8% vs -24.9%.

Why

• US dollar index is high (+1.21 sd). In 2473 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.181, t 9.13), so this supports the market.
• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2486 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.105, t -5.25), so this weighs on the market.
• Momentum (20 days) is low (-1.92 sd). In 2453 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.059, t -2.93), so this supports the market.
• Copper to gold ratio is low (-0.92 sd). In 2503 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.087, t -4.39), so this supports the market.
• Distance from 50-day average is low (-1.6 sd). In 2453 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.043, t -2.13), so this supports the market.

Crowd psychology: fear

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.6% over 5 days, up 62% of the time (29 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.7% over 5 days, up 61% of the time (31 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.0% over 5 days, up 65% of the time (40 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.4% over 5 days, up 58% of the time (24 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.2% over 5 days, up 57% of the time (215 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure