EUR/USD AI outlook: leaning down

Following the AI beat buy and hold here: +3.6% vs -3.1% over 1299 days, worst drop -9.5% vs -17.9%.

Why

• US gasoline price is high (+2.25 sd). In 518 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.102, t -2.33), so this weighs on the market.
• US dollar index is high (+1.21 sd). In 2179 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.158, t 7.45), so this supports the market.
• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2195 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.111, t -5.21), so this weighs on the market.
• Volatility (20 days) is low (-1.41 sd). In 2540 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.091, t 4.6), so this weighs on the market.
• Bitcoin (5-day change) is near normal (+0.45 sd). In 622 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.193, t -4.9), so this weighs on the market.

Crowd psychology: calm

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.1% over 5 days, up 61% of the time (23 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.2% over 5 days, up 67% of the time (30 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.2% over 5 days, up 33% of the time (33 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.1% over 5 days, up 51% of the time (47 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.0% over 5 days, up 51% of the time (298 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure