Copper AI outlook: neutral

Holding has done better here: +58.4% vs the AI's -14.3% over 1256 days. The AI's worst drop was -45.4% vs -34.9%.

Why

• Treasury cash account is high (+1.77 sd). In 513 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.145, t 3.3), so this supports the market.
• US gasoline price is high (+2.25 sd). In 466 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.112, t -2.42), so this weighs on the market.
• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2486 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.138, t -6.96), so this weighs on the market.
• Copper to gold ratio is low (-0.92 sd). In 2503 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.17, t -8.62), so this supports the market.
• Bitcoin (5-day change) is near normal (+0.45 sd). In 605 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.156, t -3.87), so this weighs on the market.

Crowd psychology: euphoria

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.5% over 5 days, up 54% of the time (24 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: -1.4% over 5 days, up 43% of the time (21 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: +0.5% over 5 days, up 54% of the time (41 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.5% over 5 days, up 52% of the time (23 times)
• Capitulation: 20%+ below its 60-day high: +1.1% over 5 days, up 68% of the time (28 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: +0.1% over 5 days, up 46% of the time (160 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure