AUD/USD AI outlook: neutral

Holding has done better here: -4.6% vs the AI's -9.2% over 1299 days. The AI's worst drop was -20.5% vs -21.5%.

Why

• US gasoline price is high (+2.25 sd). In 518 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.093, t -2.13), so this weighs on the market.
• Oil price is high (+1.55 sd). In 2195 days of history, lower readings came before better 10-day returns (IC -0.106, t -5.01), so this weighs on the market.
• Corporate bond spread (Baa) is low (-1.15 sd). In 2188 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.142, t 6.69), so this weighs on the market.
• US dollar index is high (+1.21 sd). In 2179 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.115, t 5.38), so this supports the market.
• Volatility (20 days) is low (-0.96 sd). In 2540 days of history, higher readings came before better 10-day returns (IC 0.133, t 6.78), so this weighs on the market.

Crowd psychology: optimism

• Panic day: fell more than 2.5x a normal move: -0.2% over 5 days, up 48% of the time (21 times)
• Euphoria day: rose more than 2.5x a normal move: +0.3% over 5 days, up 57% of the time (28 times)
• Herding up: 5+ green days in a row: -0.1% over 5 days, up 52% of the time (31 times)
• Herding down: 5+ red days in a row: +0.1% over 5 days, up 56% of the time (43 times)
• Near the highs: within 2% of its 60-day high: -0.0% over 5 days, up 52% of the time (225 times)

Coming up (Forex Factory)

• High · USD FOMC Meeting Minutes · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
• Medium · USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Unemployment Claims · Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:30 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC
• Medium · USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations · Fri, 09 Oct 2026 14:00 UTC

All AI outlooks

Statistical tendencies from free public data and backtests on real prices. Not investment advice; past results don't predict future returns. How the AI works · Risk Disclosure